Ultimate Strategy to Identify Winning Stocks to Invest

If you're serious about picking stocks that offer solid returns, this strategy can help you cut through the noise and make informed decisions. Here’s how to identify winning stocks using key metrics in the Indian market:

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1. Consistent Year-over-Year Growth in Gross Profit

Start by looking for companies that show at least a 20% year-over-year (Y-o-Y) increase in gross profit.

Formula to Calculate Gross Profit:

$$\text{<b>Gross Profit</b>}=\text{<b>Revenue</b>}-\text{<b>Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)</b>}$$

Gross Profit Margin (GPM) should exceed 25% Y-o-Y:

$$\text{<b>GPM</b>}<b>=</b>\left(\frac{\text{<b>Gross Profit</b>}}{\text{<b>Revenue</b>}}\right)<b>\times </b>\mathrm{<b>100</b>}$$

Markup should be above 25%:

$$\text{<b>Markup</b>}<b>=</b>\left(\frac{\text{<b>Gross Profit</b>}}{\text{<b>COGS</b>}}\right)<b>\times </b>\mathrm{<b>100</b>}$$

Additionally, you want to ensure that sales are increasing by 15% Y-o-Y, and the COGS is decreasing year by year, indicating efficient production and cost management.

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2. Strong Cash Conversion Rate

Cash conversion rate measures how efficiently a company turns its profits into cash flow. Look for 25% Y-o-Y growth in this area.

Cash Conversion Rate Formula:

$$\text{<b>Cash Conversion</b>}<b>=</b>\frac{\text{<b>Operating Cash Flow</b>}}{\text{<b>Net Income</b>}}$$

A higher cash conversion rate means better liquidity and financial stability.

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3. Return on Equity (ROE) & Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)

Successful companies typically have a ROE of over 15% and ROCE over 18% growth year-on-year. These metrics highlight how well a company uses its resources and shareholder funds to generate profits.

Return on Equity (ROE) Formula:

$$\text{<b>ROE</b>}=\frac{\text{<b>Net Income</b>}}{\text{<b>Shareholder’s Equity</b>}}\times \mathrm{<b>100</b>}$$

Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) Formula:

$$\text{ROCE} = \frac{\text{Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT)}}{\text{Capital Employed}} \times 100$$

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4. Low Debt Levels

Keep an eye on the company’s Debt-to-Equity (D/E) ratio. Look for companies with little to no debt. Ideally, the D/E ratio should be below 1, meaning the company is not over-leveraged.

Debt-to-Equity (D/E)  Formula:

$$\text{<b>Debt-to-Equity Ratio</b>}=\frac{\text{<b>Total Liabilities</b>}}{\text{<b>Shareholders’ Equity</b>}}$$

Shareholders’ Equity  Formula:

Shareholders Equity = Total Assets − Total Liabilities

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5. Strong Promoter Holding

Promoter confidence is a strong signal. Look for companies where promoters hold over 60% of the shares, and more importantly, their stake is increasing, not decreasing.

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6. Market Capitalization Over ₹10,000 Crore

Focus on companies with a market cap above ₹10,000 crore. This ensures you're looking at large, stable companies that can weather market volatility better than smaller, less established firms.

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7. Stock P/E Lower Than Industry Average

A stock’s Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio gives a sense of its valuation. Look for stocks where the P/E is lower than the industry average and peer companies. This indicates the stock might be undervalued and offers growth potential.

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio Formula:

$$\text{<b>P/E Ratio</b>}=\frac{\text{<b>Market Price per Share</b>}}{\text{<b>Earnings per Share (EPS)</b>}}$$

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8. Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio Less Than 1.5

The Book Value (BV) of a stock should be close to or less than the current stock price. Aim for companies where the P/B ratio is less than 1.5. This can signal that the stock is trading at a good value.

Price-to-Book (P/B) Formula:

$$\text{<b>P/B Ratio</b>}=\frac{\text{<b>Market Price per Share</b>}}{\text{<b>Book Value per Share</b>}}$$

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9. Growing Earnings Per Share (EPS)

A company's EPS should show consistent growth year-over-year. This indicates that the company is not only profitable but is also growing its profitability.

Earnings Per Share (EPS) Formula:

$$\text{<b>EPS</b>}=\frac{\text{<b>Net Income</b>}-\text{<b>Preferred Dividends</b>}}{\text{<b>Weighted Average Shares Outstanding</b>}}$$

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10. PEG Ratio Less Than 1

The Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio helps determine whether a stock is overvalued or undervalued relative to its earnings growth. A PEG ratio under 1 indicates the stock may be undervalued considering its growth rate, making it a potentially attractive investment.

Price/Earnings-to-Growth (PEG) Ratio Formula:

$$\text{<b>PEG Ratio</b>}=\frac{\text{<b>P/E Ratio</b>}}{\text{<b>Earnings Growth Rate (\%)</b>}}$$

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Final Thoughts

This Ultimate Strategy to Identify Winning Stocks is a data-driven approach that considers multiple financial indicators and ratios to find fundamentally strong companies. By focusing on stocks with growing profits, low debt, strong promoter holdings, and sound financial ratios, you set yourself up to build a portfolio of winning stocks. Keep in mind that research and patience are key, and this strategy should be part of a larger, diversified investment approach.

Happy investing!